Sunday, September 19, 2010

Simple Trading Method with T101 IA Simulator by Carl Rodriguez

WARNING: This method may sound simple but this is not for NEWBIES. Using this system without basic trading knowledge will definitely blow your account. You need to have at least a 1 year trading experience to understand the theory of this method. There are other system appropriate for newbies.

I'm been playing this method for about 3 months now and the return is quite good. This is a very simple method and it is all base on price action, indicator free trading and it is done manually.

First you have to open a demo account and make sure that the MT4 broker you choose have the ff. pairs (must have) in their platform:

1. Download one version only.
T101 Universal Package v20.zip (65.5 KB, 2673 views)
2. Put the indicator in the /experts/indicators directory.
3. Start your Metatrader.
4. Attach indicator to a busy chart. It will create data files in your Metatrader /experts/files directory.
5. Copy the program (.exe) into the /experts/files directory.
6. Run it.
7. Select a reference date.
8. Check the Realtime box. 9. Continue to play. Watch, read more of this thread/T101 thread.

The Simulator Look like Above. How to read and open entry. When all green pairs at top and all red pairs at bottom, the trend is up and good to buy/long but wait until anchor signal come out. Please test with demo account before go to real trade to avoid loss.

This is based on the 14 pairs for IBFX (thats what I have). Should work for any broker that has these pairs. You must have these available in your MT4 to use this.

Set 1 (The Buys)
1) GBPUSD
2) EURGBP
3) GBPJPY
4) USDCHF
5) NZDUSD
6) AUDJPY
7) EURJPY

Set 2 (The Sells)
8) EURUSD
9) USDJPY
10) AUDUSD
11) NZDJPY
12) GBPCHF
13) CHFJPY
14) EURCHF
Total spread for Buys = 37
Total spread for Sells = 40
As designated by T101.

Please note that MT4 is written very poorly.
To ensure you get the maximum history data for use by the program, open all 14 pairs daily charts. This will prompt MT4 to download the daily data.

Friday, June 11, 2010

The Three Trendline Strategy

Newcomers to trading the foreign exchange currency markets do well to accept the observation of experienced seasoned traders that the idea of a perfect Forex trading tool is an illusion.

While no perfect Forex trading tool exists, using a combination of tools to identify a converging of favorable market factors can yield a majority of high probability trades over a period of time.

Trendlines certainly deserve close consideration and many successful traders add them to their collection of Forex trading tools.

It should be stated at the outset that trendlines by themselves do not provide a strong enough signal to warrant making a trade. They are a useful addition and provide confirmation of signals from other tools. (See resource box for a visual example of using a trendline as a trade entry point)

The Three Trendline Strategy

Consider these three main types of trendlines you need to know and use if you are going to make any sense of trendlines.

Trendlines are lines drawn across significant lows in an uptrend, and significant highs in a downtrend. The more candles to the left and right of the lowest candle in an uptrend or the highest candle in a downtrend make the low or high point more significant.

1. Short Term Trendlines

Draw these lines across the most recent two lows (for an uptrend) or highs (for a downtrend). These are best observed on a smaller time frame such as a 15 minute or 30 minute chart.

2. Medium Term Trendlines

These are best observed on a higher time frame such as a 60 minute chart. Again connect the nearest significant low to current price action to the previous significant low in an uptrend or the nearest significant high to current price action to the previous significant high in a downtrend.

3. Long Term Trendlines

Use higher time frames such as the 4 hour chart or the daily chart to draw long term trendlines using the same method described for Medium Term Trendlines.

The long term trendline can be a powerful Forex trading tool. Keep in mind that the daily chart is used prominently by traders of big institutions. Such traders probably do not engage in small moves on an intra day level. They are more concerned about taking a position on a currency pair.

The daily chart is consulted by them when making decisions. So by drawing a trendline on a daily chart you can present to yourself graphically just where price is and where it is likely to either possibly bounce and retrace or continue with the current momentum.

Using Trendlines As An Effective Forex Trading Tool

Trendlines on the short time frame merely give you a defined picture of current price action. These trendlines are broken often during the course of a day. It is probably not a good idea to enter trades based on trendline breaks from a small time frame chart. Their main use is to give you a clear, instantly recognizable graphical representation of current price behavior.

However, here is where trendlines can prove to be a useful Forex trading tool:

If you notice price coming back to test a trendline on the higher time frames, (anything over 30 minutes), look at other factors. For example:

  • Draw in horizontal lines to mark key support and resistance using previous highs and lows.
  • Draw Fibonacci retracement and extension levels.
  • Calculate the daily pivot points and put them on your chart.
  • Have the 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) shown on your charts.

Now, if price were to bounce or touch the trendline on the medium to higher time frames, that is, on the 60 minute, 4 hour, or even daily charts, does that price point also coincide with or match up with one of the other indicators mentioned above?

If for example the trendline intersects with a pivot point which is also a Fibonacci 50% or 62% retracement, or 127% or 162% extension, then you have a convergence of factors. If you entered a trade at that point there is a high probability you will catch at least 10 to 20 pips on the first move on the bounce.

Looking for such opportunities takes patience. They don't come up so often but when they do you can be ALMOST guaranteed a successful trade if you keep your first profit target to a reasonable level.

If trading multiple lots, then be sure to take your first profit at the 10 to 20 pip level and let one or two other lots run if price continues in the direction you anticipate. At the same time of course you would move up your stop to break even point after taking first profit so your trade can now run without risk.

Employ trendlines as a Forex trading tool with caution and discretion. Covering your charts with every trendline possible will only result in confusion and blurry analysis.

One or two trendlines at key or significant swing points, (price highs and lows) can give you a defined, clear picture of price action, which, when coupled with your other Forex trading tools, can result in profitable trades.


Using Trendline Analysis As Part Of Your Forex Strategy

Often, not always, price will break a trendline and move away 10 or 20 pips. Then, it comes back to test the backside of that trendline. That’s where you enter the trade.

If the trendline break coincides with your other favorite indicators such as:

  • Pivot Points
  • Fibonacci Calculations
  • Previous Support Or Resistance

then set an entry order for price to take you in when it comes back to test that level.

That way you enter the trade at an optimum level and squeeze even more pips out of the move.

Note the examples below:

USD/CHF
1 Hour Chart

See how price broke the trendline, then came back to test the backside.

If you look carefully at the chart and run your eyes left, you will see that the trendline bounce also coincides with a previous support/resistance level.

If you did some Fibonacci calculations you would also find that same point matches with 50 and 62% retracement levels.

With that convergence of factors, the trendline backside test makes a good entry point!

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

How Do You Trade The Non-Farm Payroll Report

In the development of your forex strategy do you wonder how you can trade the non-farm payroll report?

Seeing this is one of the most, if not the most, volatile announcement during the month (first Friday in every month) newer traders watch the huge movements and wonder how to make money from all that volatility.

Seeing this is one of the most, if not the most, volatile announcement during the month (first Friday in every month) newer traders watch the huge movements and wonder how to make money from all that volatility.

The answer given below you may not fully appreciate until some explanation is offered.

Question

"How do I trade the non-farm payroll report?"

Answer

"You DON'T!"

Or to put it another way, "By maintaining a neutral position!"

The market is far too volatile at this time to expect a high probability trade. There may be some gamblers out there who relish the thought of ‘placing a bet’ to go long or short. But serious traders know better.

Actually, the professional traders I know all say the same thing: Stand aside and wait for the market to calm down.”

This may take between 30 to 45 minutes in some cases and even then the direction of the market may be uncertain.

Some suggest you can trade volatile market movers such as the non-farm payroll report by waiting for the first leg of the move, up or down, then wait for price to pull back 10 or 15 pips, then enter a trade to catch the second leg of the move which often follows.

That’s one possibility but still very high risk. Personally I prefer to base my forex strategy on sound market assessment and carefully researched trades.

Trading The Aftermath

However, while many professional traders sit out the non-farm payroll report, that doesn’t mean they don’t trade afterwards.

After the market has made a violent move in one direction you sometimes see price stalling and then give a clear signal that it’s momentum is exhausted.

Look For Combination Factors

This may be in the form of a candle pattern such as a hammer with a very large shadow which also happens to be on a key support or resistance level.

Now you can enter a trade with a small level of risk as you place your stop just above the high or low of the candle signal.

This advice applies to all fundamental announcements which are considered ‘market movers’. By developing a cautious forex strategy based on sound trading principles, you will enjoy this business and get the satisfaction of seeing your account equity steadily growing.

Friday, April 9, 2010

How to became a successful trader

I began currency trading 2 years ago. The first 3 months trading were complete failure, I remember I lost all my money and I was about to quit, but I couldn’t, I felt if I quit now I will miss the chance to have my own business. So I stop trading and begin observing, studying, analyzing and practicing.

Observing : I began observing Forex Market, what causes its moving, reacting, ranging and trading.

Analyzing: I began working with technical and fundamental analysis; how each analysis can predict and redirect the market and how I can use them both for my own benefit. I will talk about these analysis in the next paragraph.

Reading : I bought Forex Trading Books and read them, books explaining different strategies and tactics used by experienced traders.

Practicing : I created demo accounts and began trading virtually and each technique I invent I try it and monitor its performance and validity.

After one year of study and analysis, trying and updating trading techniques and after many failure and frustration I reached my own strategy and it is working very well and each month my profit is positive.

Implementation

I reached my targets and I built a successful strategy, but that’s not enough; to make profit I must not miss any opportunity and forex market is full of opportunities because it is the most active market in the world, for that reason I must sit all time and watch and detect opportunities all day long from Monday to Friday.

How to resolve this problem, I can’t sit and observe the market hours after hours, I have my career and my family, so I thought I must program my strategy, let the Information Technology do the hard work for me, and nobody is discipline as a software, so I created an artificial intelligent software which collects data from the market and implement my strategy on this data and detect opportunities 24/24. This program analyzes fundamental and technical data and generates forex signals which are forwarded automatically to my broker platform where the signals are executed automatically and forwarded also to my website members. All this is done without my interfering, I just run the program, it analyzes and makes its decisions (Buying, Selling or stay aside). How to succeed in Forex Trading

Five over hundred traders succeed in this business, what differentiate those five successful from the 95 others is one thing ,,,, it is the HARD WORK. Forex trading is not an easy business, and who tells you he can make you rich in one night is one of those 95. Only one thing can make you a successful trader, HARD WORK , and nothing else. Don’t rely on other traders or advisers to help you, rely and have confidence on yourself.

Don’t begin trading quickly, the forex market will not go anywhere, it will stay forever, give yourself 6 to 12 months of studies, analysis, readings, practice and build your own strategy before begin real trading, it will take a lot of time and dedication but at the end you will reach your target.

Strategy

I will reveal some techniques I use which help traders in their trades.

My strategy follows the following tips and techniques:

1 – Discipline : Put criteria for your trades, watch the market and only trade when criteria are met, if they are not met do not trade. My program is the most disciplined trader, it takes care of all of this, it monitors the market and only trade if only criteria are met, and the second advantage of this is the elimination of the fear factor, it enters a trade when it sees it is good to enter and fear nothing.

2 – Money management : It’s the main key for good trading, I exit all trades and stop trading for a specific day if I lost -60 pips, in the other hand I put stop loss for my trades if I reached +25 pips profit, in that case profit will not get under +25 pips and it has open target, and all I have to do is go out and have fun.

3 – No trades for now : The most important thing in trading is sometime not to trade, I take this decision after looking to my charts and see that there is not enough volatility or there is no enough reports will be released for today and it is better to wait until market is more volatile. I advise traders not to trade during the first days of the month, personally I begin trading at the first Friday of the month when the Non Farm payroll report will be released.

4 – Analysis : I use fundamental and technical analysis while trading. Fundamental defines the trend of the market and the technical analysis is used after the definition of the trend. I trade the news by analyzing pragmatically the released data for a specific report and generate signals which are executed immediately on the trading platform and forwarded simultaneously to my members. Fundamental and technical analysis must be used together, if one is used without the other this will lead to failure.

5 – Technical indicators : In the forex market there is a lot of indicators which are used by many traders. I use ADX, Bollinger Bands to identify trends and volatility; RSI to identify an over Bought or Sold. Moving Average to identify a signal. And the most important technique is FIBONACCI, I advise traders to implement this technique and use it to confirm trades.


Finally, I must say that Forex is not easy, and many times we feel that someone is conspiracy on us, but the truth is nothing is impossible, and others successful traders are not more intelligent than others or they are genius from other planet, the fact is the more you work the more you become closer to become good trader. Do not quit quickly because this business deserves our dedication.

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

How to trade the News

News Trading or (Trade the news technique) is a term which we always hear, in this article We will describe how We see Forex News Trading and how We trade the news; I tried forex news trading for many years and discovered great things; how to use economic reports and forex news along with technical analysis.

In this article We will describe the most accurate and profitable FX techniques that each trader must use in his trades. First of all, we must use Technical and Fundamental analysis in our trades, we can’t rely on one without the other, we must use them both; Technical analysis analyses the history of the currency and predict the future price; each trader has a different forex strategy which he uses in analyzing the market, me too I have my own strategies and they are not hidden;

Let’s talk now about the fundamental analysis, I tried most of fundamental and news trading techniques but I didn’t find them worthy, it is real that releasing news can affect a certain currency, but how it affects the currency and when it deviates that currency, some economic reports make the currency jump 100 pips during the first split second of the time release – you must pay for this kind of service (getting the data in the second of the release)

In addition a report may affect a currency during the first 10 minutes or half hour but before it takes the right trend it can fluctuates up and down and may stop you out, many traders put entries above and below the price before 2 minutes of the release, and wait for the spike, but also it is not worthy method because it may happen that the news which deviate the currency doesn’t have enough power to hit the target or maybe the revision came opposite to the actual or the deviation between the actual and the forecast was not enough to enter a trade or maybe the report was released and the price was below a certain resistance which forbid the price to pass it, so you enter a LONG trade but you find that the price went up, then tests the resistance then turns back to the support level and stops you out.

I faced a lot of these problems and you will face it too if you don’t follow the right technique while trading the news. My technique is very simple and effective:

1 – Don’t trade all news trading reports, trade only those who create and define the direction of the trend (Interest rates, trade balance and NonFarm Payroll). Do not trade these news trading reports only because they are important it may happen that a report came better then expected but do not create a move. I enter a trade only if the actual data came much better or worse (good deviation) and the revised data came along with the actual data and there is no important conflicting report.

2 – The other normal news trading reports are also important; they are used to confirm or to close a trade especially when we are in the beginning of a specific trade; If you have just entered a trade and your current profit is between -20 and 20 pips and a specific report is released and that report affects the currency you are trading then we close it because this report has a good probability to stop you out. When you gain a good number of pips then you may not rely on normal economic reports and rely only on technical analysis and continue your trade until you hit your target.

Fundamental and news trading is a good technique but we must use it along with technical analysis, and we must take in consideration trading the important news reports, the deviation between actual and Consensus, the revised data, the conflicting news trading reports and the support and resistance levels.

Tuesday, February 9, 2010

How to build a good forex strategy

Each forex trader must have his own strategy, we can’t rely all the time on others strategies and forex signal, other FX traders are not better then us; we can develop more profitable techniques. In this article I will give you some tips to follow while developing your currency trading strategy.

First of all be simple as you can; Forex trading is not simple and it needs good concentration that’s true, but the good news is you can make profit by following simple techniques and stick to it. Don’t use complicated economic indicators; indicators describe the market and do not predict it.

Second, develop a strategy which do not rely on news release, you can do that by closing a trade before a news release or open it after a news release, and by this way you will not be stopped out because a report came worse than your expectation.

Combining the second and third rule we will have the following scenario: I see a currency in a downtrend (or uptrend) and I am sure of the trend, but the RSI is under 30, and after a while a report will be released, so what I do is wait for the report to be released.

At release time we will either see the currency going down very quickly and we will miss the chance to enter into a very profitable trade and it is not a problem as long as we don’t loose pips, OR the currency will go up, in that case the RSI is no more oversold, so we identify a good entry point to enter a short trade. Forex is not so bad and it always gives us new chances and always tells us to enter or exit but we must read well the signs and forex signal.

Fourth, the most important thing in foreign exchange trading is the entry point; good entry point leads us to profit, bad entry point leads us to loose. You probably hear a lot of traders telling you do not trade against the trend, and that’s right but it is not enough, you must know where to enter a trend , timing is the most important, so where to enter, I will tell you where I enter. For example, let’s assume that EUR/USD major trend is down and I want to enter a short trade. We know very well that currencies move in waves


So most traders see in wave [A_B} a good opportunity to sell but it is too risky for me and it has a good probability to stop me out, if I enter at point [B] I will be stopped out, but If I short at point [C] I will be riding the trend from the beginning and make very good pips.

At point [C] the currency is no more oversold and probably at point [B] a report has been released and caused a retracement to [C], so at [C] I will enter the corrective wave. With this technique, I will have a 95% chance to hit my target and the spread will be very tight. You see, forex gives you many chances, you must change your way of thinking a little bit and see trading from a different point of view and have our own forex signal.

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Forex Basket Trading System (T101)

And here is his trading system is named
“Simple Trading Method (Basket Trading Strategy)”

System is based on price action, indicator free trading and it is done manually.
My role here is only a person Introducing this system to you in hope that you can use this system for reference in process of developing your own trading system.

This system is based on the fluctuation of prices, do not use the forecast, the system is done manually, in other words to have to transactions rather than using automated programs to achieve good performance .
Role of I (happylife) here are only introducing this system to you to help you refer to in building a system of your own.

But now we will talk about Basket Trading System:

I (Pipscorer) how to use this transaction is 3 months, after the collected data by 2 years to observe changes of progressive and start applying to the actual transactions, results is also quite good. This system is quite simple and based entirely on changes in price - price action, not using forecasting tools and manual transactions (that is from the trade instead of auto trade).

You will first need to open a trade account try (predict account - Account Indicator - IA) and make sure that your broker “must have” Funding the following:

Most brokers have the following Pairs.
1. GBPUSD 8. CADJPY
2. EURGBP 9. AUDUSD
3. GBPCHF 10. USDJPY
4. CHFJPY 11. EURUSD
5. AUDJPY 12. EURCHF
6. EURJPY 13. GBPJPY
7. USDCHF 14 USDCAD

If you are using the IBFX Platform below are your pairs to Hedge:
1. GBPUSD 8. EURUSD
2. EURGBP 9. USDJPY
3. GBPJPY 10. AUDUSD
4. USDCHF 11. NZDJPY
5. NZDUSD 12. GBPCHF
6. AUDJPY 13. CHFJPY
7. EURJPY 14 EURCHF

7 pairs of first group 1, 7 pairs following a group 2. The pair of variables when this will hedge each other (except for mutual compensation, because it will change back together). Group 1 will short - sell, and then Group 2 will LONG - buy. No set target or stoploss. At the bottom of the script that you can use to place orders at the same time to purchase 14 pairs of the same money at 1 to ensure time for radical open at the same time. Then click on the column in the profit of the order, to rearrange the pairs, then the food will pair are at the top and the holes will pair are at the bottom, or vice versa. At first the pair arranged quite intricate but after 1-2 days, the pair will arrange the right order of it. The pair will be long in the bottom end, the short will pair in the above, or vice versa. The process of waiting for this just waiting to shine deposition of mud under that.

After the pair were on location, in other words it really has to distinguish the 2 groups separately. (you can see pictures to know more). Then, if 1 pair is overrun border between the 2 pairs, which is progressive, we need attention. Here are 2 ways to trade:
1 / Trade any pair of the border pass between the 2 groups.
2 / Trade all 14 pairs. Buy or sell the same 14 pairs.

We should have 1 account other individual to perform the actual transaction. If progressive long overrun border, you can place orders to buy the 2 Funding beyond boundaries (1 pair for the switch down while the pair 1 below will have to move up). Setting the target depends on you, for me I use the EA Profit Protection to implement monitoring of order transactions.

Remember do not touch on the demo account because this account will be maintained as a tool of your case. Let this account to run and check the pair have overcome any money from the border, you can perform transactions.

Below, you can see the USDCAD pair overrun border, I made the transaction and earn some PIP from it. At the same time pair GBPUSD also be pushed down and be done buying transactions.

Will much about how the transaction we will discover more.
I hope that I explained how the transaction is fairly clear. Wish you luck.
Trader101

Note:
1) this method is manual .. Again manual … Indicator is fine.
2) I am trying to avoid any EA being made out of this system, indicators are welcome.
3) To those who will benefit from this method, my only request is to give TO CREDIT WHERE CREDIT is due this is given unselfishly free. Pipscorer/Trader10

To know more about Julius (Trader101) Please refer to the following links:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=14595
http://www.forex-tsd.com/suggestions-trading-systems/16466-basket-trading-system-t101-system.html