Tuesday, June 28, 2011

1000 pips in Week by Lukpayat@Mizee

I'm Mizee, Full time trader from kota damansara. Been using this methods for almost a year and manage to get 1000-2000 pips a week. The concept based on SELF FULLFILLING PROPHECY and currency strength. We can either trade in "basket of currency", single pair, or multiple pairs.
This is a summarized version for the system in english as per requested by some foreign friends.

I had found this idea of buying currency instead of pair. Previously, i used to trade EURUSD ONLY. as per recomended by some gurus in Fx. But then, I realized that trading single pair is riskier than trading multiple pair. So, i decided to create a method that could enable us to trade all pairs that is going on same direction at any point of time. - correlation trading.

Why?
Because we are selling and buying currencies. we are not selling & buying PAIR. We buy USD, we sell EUR. We just need to know what is focus currency at any point of time, if the majority of the world are selling USD, we just follow them - SELL. Meaning, we are buying other currencies to dispose USD. there are 7 major pairs bearing USD as quote or base that we can trade together. look at the bigger picture. not only one pair.

But then, how do we analyse entry and exit? all 7 pairs? NOPE.. Now we have the concept of "dominant pair". Some currency pairs are consist of two very liquid currencies. Example: GBPJPY. Both GBP and JPY are dominant currency and a product of USDJPY & GBPUSD. Also EURJPY. These GJ, GU and EJ are lebelled as "anchors" in my system as i used them as a reference when i trade basket currency.

For this system, it is very simple, understand the price action, see the number that indicates the strength index, then get ready to OP.

Traders must have strong basic and understanding about Support and Resistance and how price behaves around it. this is the heart of the system. And we have oasis currency meter to confirm the trend. I would consider this method as naked since we do not use indicators except for the candlestick itself. While currency meter is also an indicator, it is unique since it is not affected by Timeframe we chose. It is acting like a compass or map to show which currency to trade, when to trade, when not to trade and when to exit trade.

Lets talk about currency strength index. This numerical values are derived from calculating the amount of disposition of certain currency throughout the day. So, when you hear good news in US economy, it will be translated into buying USD currency. Traders and big player will start buying USDCHF, USDJPY, USDCAD and selling EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD. If we focus on USD, we shall notice USD will become stronger as many are buying USD.

As a result, the supply will become lesser and the value of usd will increase. Then we shall see the OASIS currency meter reading for USD increasing. So, when USD strong, we buy USD currency. From the meter, we can identify which currency is good to buy or to dispose. So, from USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF, AUD, CAD, NZD

Let me summarize the rules.
Key to this system is Price action, S&R, HI-LO Range, and Currency Strength.
  1. The gap of the currency strength between the weak and the strong one MUST be more than 3. Meaning that the Strong - Weak = 3. Example GBP is strong, reading meter shows 7, usd is weak, reading meter is 3. We have a GAP of 4. This means we can trade GBPUSD as BUY.
  2. The HI-LO on that day must not exceed the average daily range of that particular pair. If the Average Range for gbpjpy is 250pips a day for the last 100days, that means, when the current HI-LO for today is already exceeding 250pips, do not trade. If it shows yen is strong, and gbp is weak, DO NOT SELL GBPJPY anymore. No new entry after the daily range is exceeded.
  3. Prepare a Support Resistance on the pair we want to trade. There are plenty of auto SnR or even auto Fibonacci out there that you can download. Do a set of fibo retracement and expansion on Daily and Weekly as well as Monthly. Then OP when second candle is open after the first one close beyond the zone of SnR. You may refer to the ebook for picture. The complete set of instruction including the EA to control profit is available in oasis forum for free.
Ok, now, to trade currency basket, we need to identify the most dominant pair among the currency pair. For YEN pairs, normally the dominant pair is either EURJPY or GBPJPY. If we were to trade all yen pair, when yen is strong.
We want to evaluate only the most dominant pair as trigger. No need to look at all 7 pairs.
how do you identify the most dominat pair for that day? We need to use the IA. or in other words - indicator account. More details on this subject available here.

see picture below:
Once you identify that it is the most dominant pair, just do analysis on this pair and OP using script provided here.

how to read the dashboard?

This Statistic and summary indicator is to simplify my job to make conclusion which was based on a few charts.
Originally, I will refer to these 3 pair before i actually OP base on the 3 criterias:
  1. Strength >/= 3 (best is 4)
  2. Candle on TF 5 or 15 break the SnR, close above and new candle formed on the same direction. for a solid certainty entry, I would use M15, but must refer to H1 and above to check whether the SnR is Major or Minor. What is the difference between Major and Minor? The pivot is considered as major as it calculated based on Hi-LO and Average Price Daily. So the SnR is quite robust. While any SnR drawn from H1 TF below, is considered fragile as it is minor.
  3. The price must be within Daily Average Range. For this particular item, we can use the T S R Range calculator modified, posted somewhere in this thread.
BEST TIME TO TRADE
Session Open - Asian Session Japan, EUR Session, US Session.

RISK MANAGEMENT
CUT LOSS when price break the SnR in your opposite direction.
SET YOU OWN PERSONAL DRAWDOWN LIMIT. Drawdown can be very dangerous is you do not use proper money management. I set at 10% drawdown from the equity. More than 10%, i will close the trade.

READING THE DASHBOARD
Normally I will be flipping through 3 charts to see where is the CS location. From the SnR as well as direction on multiTF. And also to check the range of the dominant pair. I found it tedious especially when trying to catch a move after news or session open.
This dashboard is not an indicator to give signal on Buy or Sell. It just summarize the information and statistic needed for us to make decision.

in this dash board, there are 4 segments:
1. Candle location in pips value from SnR.
2. price action (direction) on TF15 and TFH1
3. Summary on strength difference (range), spread, Hi-lo and also average range for last 5 days
4. the currency strength meter.

How do we use this?
No 1 is to see where the GJ, GU and EJ are located from the SnR. this is important for us to decide whether we want to trade both USD and Yen or just USD or YEN.

No 2 is to check the tradable pairs whether they are running on the same direction after the "pacemaker" breaking thru the resistance or support. if they are all aligned, we can trade both USD and Yen.

No 3 is to see whether the current moment is suitable for OP. the range is auto calculated and we can set the difference as 4 or 3. i would recomend 3 so that we are not too late as market nowadays is ranging. from this statistic, we can also trade manually based on those pairs which only have extreme conditions (weak versus strong). and also the range comparison is displayed here. hi-lo is the current day movement of the pair, and the dailyAve is the last 5 days range.

For this range, condition of this system = todays hi-lo must be <!--= average range. in this SS, lets take previous day as example since daily range is only 122 and still within range, and not a good example since it was friday. notice tak the 100days average range is 184 pips? the hi-lo on thursday is 175.. very close to the maximum average daily range.. at this point, even though the usd is still weak compared to GBP, it is no longer safe to buy. as it almost out of range. once the price hit resistance, very likely it will bounce back due to self-fulling prophecy on both resistance and range. i do not pay attention on the risk and the pips down or pips up statistic. i only use the range statistics. , IT IS MORE IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHEN NOT TO TRADE RATHER THAN WHEN TO TRADE.
Caution: meter is inaccurate in the morning when the market is just open. if your broker starts market at 8am for GMT +8 area like malaysia, wait for at least half hour before make decision based on oasis meter. let the market find the direction and then only we follow.


P/S: IBFX wont work since the symbols has "m: at the back of the currency pair. same goes to fxopen micro.

Hope this helps : LUKPAYAT or Brother Mizee
http://www.oasiswealthbuilders.com/

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Simple Trading Method with T101 IA Simulator by Carl Rodriguez

WARNING: This method may sound simple but this is not for NEWBIES. Using this system without basic trading knowledge will definitely blow your account. You need to have at least a 1 year trading experience to understand the theory of this method. There are other system appropriate for newbies.

I'm been playing this method for about 3 months now and the return is quite good. This is a very simple method and it is all base on price action, indicator free trading and it is done manually.

First you have to open a demo account and make sure that the MT4 broker you choose have the ff. pairs (must have) in their platform:

1. Download one version only.
T101 Universal Package v20.zip (65.5 KB, 2673 views)
2. Put the indicator in the /experts/indicators directory.
3. Start your Metatrader.
4. Attach indicator to a busy chart. It will create data files in your Metatrader /experts/files directory.
5. Copy the program (.exe) into the /experts/files directory.
6. Run it.
7. Select a reference date.
8. Check the Realtime box. 9. Continue to play. Watch, read more of this thread/T101 thread.

The Simulator Look like Above. How to read and open entry. When all green pairs at top and all red pairs at bottom, the trend is up and good to buy/long but wait until anchor signal come out. Please test with demo account before go to real trade to avoid loss.

This is based on the 14 pairs for IBFX (thats what I have). Should work for any broker that has these pairs. You must have these available in your MT4 to use this.

Set 1 (The Buys)
1) GBPUSD
2) EURGBP
3) GBPJPY
4) USDCHF
5) NZDUSD
6) AUDJPY
7) EURJPY

Set 2 (The Sells)
8) EURUSD
9) USDJPY
10) AUDUSD
11) NZDJPY
12) GBPCHF
13) CHFJPY
14) EURCHF
Total spread for Buys = 37
Total spread for Sells = 40
As designated by T101.

Please note that MT4 is written very poorly.
To ensure you get the maximum history data for use by the program, open all 14 pairs daily charts. This will prompt MT4 to download the daily data.

Friday, June 11, 2010

The Three Trendline Strategy

Newcomers to trading the foreign exchange currency markets do well to accept the observation of experienced seasoned traders that the idea of a perfect Forex trading tool is an illusion.

While no perfect Forex trading tool exists, using a combination of tools to identify a converging of favorable market factors can yield a majority of high probability trades over a period of time.

Trendlines certainly deserve close consideration and many successful traders add them to their collection of Forex trading tools.

It should be stated at the outset that trendlines by themselves do not provide a strong enough signal to warrant making a trade. They are a useful addition and provide confirmation of signals from other tools. (See resource box for a visual example of using a trendline as a trade entry point)

The Three Trendline Strategy

Consider these three main types of trendlines you need to know and use if you are going to make any sense of trendlines.

Trendlines are lines drawn across significant lows in an uptrend, and significant highs in a downtrend. The more candles to the left and right of the lowest candle in an uptrend or the highest candle in a downtrend make the low or high point more significant.

1. Short Term Trendlines

Draw these lines across the most recent two lows (for an uptrend) or highs (for a downtrend). These are best observed on a smaller time frame such as a 15 minute or 30 minute chart.

2. Medium Term Trendlines

These are best observed on a higher time frame such as a 60 minute chart. Again connect the nearest significant low to current price action to the previous significant low in an uptrend or the nearest significant high to current price action to the previous significant high in a downtrend.

3. Long Term Trendlines

Use higher time frames such as the 4 hour chart or the daily chart to draw long term trendlines using the same method described for Medium Term Trendlines.

The long term trendline can be a powerful Forex trading tool. Keep in mind that the daily chart is used prominently by traders of big institutions. Such traders probably do not engage in small moves on an intra day level. They are more concerned about taking a position on a currency pair.

The daily chart is consulted by them when making decisions. So by drawing a trendline on a daily chart you can present to yourself graphically just where price is and where it is likely to either possibly bounce and retrace or continue with the current momentum.

Using Trendlines As An Effective Forex Trading Tool

Trendlines on the short time frame merely give you a defined picture of current price action. These trendlines are broken often during the course of a day. It is probably not a good idea to enter trades based on trendline breaks from a small time frame chart. Their main use is to give you a clear, instantly recognizable graphical representation of current price behavior.

However, here is where trendlines can prove to be a useful Forex trading tool:

If you notice price coming back to test a trendline on the higher time frames, (anything over 30 minutes), look at other factors. For example:

  • Draw in horizontal lines to mark key support and resistance using previous highs and lows.
  • Draw Fibonacci retracement and extension levels.
  • Calculate the daily pivot points and put them on your chart.
  • Have the 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) shown on your charts.

Now, if price were to bounce or touch the trendline on the medium to higher time frames, that is, on the 60 minute, 4 hour, or even daily charts, does that price point also coincide with or match up with one of the other indicators mentioned above?

If for example the trendline intersects with a pivot point which is also a Fibonacci 50% or 62% retracement, or 127% or 162% extension, then you have a convergence of factors. If you entered a trade at that point there is a high probability you will catch at least 10 to 20 pips on the first move on the bounce.

Looking for such opportunities takes patience. They don't come up so often but when they do you can be ALMOST guaranteed a successful trade if you keep your first profit target to a reasonable level.

If trading multiple lots, then be sure to take your first profit at the 10 to 20 pip level and let one or two other lots run if price continues in the direction you anticipate. At the same time of course you would move up your stop to break even point after taking first profit so your trade can now run without risk.

Employ trendlines as a Forex trading tool with caution and discretion. Covering your charts with every trendline possible will only result in confusion and blurry analysis.

One or two trendlines at key or significant swing points, (price highs and lows) can give you a defined, clear picture of price action, which, when coupled with your other Forex trading tools, can result in profitable trades.


Using Trendline Analysis As Part Of Your Forex Strategy

Often, not always, price will break a trendline and move away 10 or 20 pips. Then, it comes back to test the backside of that trendline. That’s where you enter the trade.

If the trendline break coincides with your other favorite indicators such as:

  • Pivot Points
  • Fibonacci Calculations
  • Previous Support Or Resistance

then set an entry order for price to take you in when it comes back to test that level.

That way you enter the trade at an optimum level and squeeze even more pips out of the move.

Note the examples below:

USD/CHF
1 Hour Chart

See how price broke the trendline, then came back to test the backside.

If you look carefully at the chart and run your eyes left, you will see that the trendline bounce also coincides with a previous support/resistance level.

If you did some Fibonacci calculations you would also find that same point matches with 50 and 62% retracement levels.

With that convergence of factors, the trendline backside test makes a good entry point!